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⚡Will the Bitcoin ETF Break Through This Week⁉️

Croxroad

14 Nov 2023 — 3 min read

☕️ GM Dear Plebs!

Here is Crox Road, your daily dose of orange pill that will turn you into a Bitcoin Maxi.

The menu for today:

🌍 The Verdict on Bitcoin's Fate Arrives This Week

This week is a big deal for crypto investors mainly because of the imminent decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the Bitcoin spot ETF. There's a window from November 13 to 17 where the SEC might approve a bunch of ETF applications – a potential game-changer that could give a massive boost to the current crypto rally.

Regarding the economic side, the recent data suggests a slowing down of the economy. Inflation seems to be holding steady at 4.1% and, combined with less impressive job numbers, it's pointing towards a slowdown. If this trend continues, the Federal Reserve might not increase interest rates and might even change course.

Looking at the probability from the CME Group FedWatch tool, it's highly likely (about 93.5%) that the Fed will keep interest rates as they are in their December meeting.

Now, here's the tricky part for the crypto market. If the SEC decides not to approve those ETFs, it might cause a chill in the market. Bitcoin's price could drop to around $35,000 to $31,000, and this could pull down other cryptocurrencies, causing significant losses, potentially in the double digits. Moreover, many altcoins are already showing signs of slowing down, and if the ETF approval doesn't happen, Bitcoin could drag them down further.

Basically, it's a crucial week for crypto due to the ETF decision and also for the economy, which might have implications on the Fed's interest rate plans. The outcomes could significantly impact the market's trajectory, so it's a tense moment for investors.

⚓ Tomorrow's CPI Report

Bitcoin recently had an impressive five-week rally, hiking its price by almost 40%, but it's hit a bit of a roadblock, hovering around $37,000 for the past few days. The excitement over a potential Bitcoin ETF approval seems to have lost some steam, so now, investors are turning their attention to Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a possible new spark for driving Bitcoin higher. The October CPI is expected to show a slowdown in monthly headline numbers, dropping to 0.1% from September's 0.4%. Year-over-year, it's predicted to decrease to 3.3% from 3.7%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecasted to stay level with September at 0.3% monthly and 4.1% year-over-year. This data could be a fresh driver for Bitcoin's next move, potentially reigniting bullish momentum.

Both these measurements are notably higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2% target. Although the central bank has mentioned that hitting precisely 2% isn't a must before they stop raising rates or start thinking about cutting them, officials have stressed the importance of moving steadily in that direction. They're keen on seeing ongoing steps toward that 2% goal as a sign of stability in the economy.

🪕 Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands, a popular technical analysis tool for assessing market volatility and price levels, consist of three lines: the middle band, typically a 20-day simple moving average representing the average price; the upper band, usually set two standard deviations above the middle band to indicate higher price volatility; and the lower band, also set at two standard deviations below the middle band, signifying lower volatility. These bands expand and contract according to market volatility, with wider bands reflecting higher volatility and narrower bands indicating lower volatility. Traders often use Bollinger Bands to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions in the market. When prices approach the upper band, it suggests the asset might be overbought, while nearing the lower band indicates potential oversold conditions. Monitoring the relationship between the price and these bands helps traders make decisions regarding possible market trends, buying or selling signals, and reversals.