beehiiv-import

⚡What's Next for SEC❓

Croxroad

14 Oct 2023 — 5 min read

☕️ GM Dear Plebs!

Here is Crox Road, your daily dose of orange pill that will turn you into a Bitcoin Maxi.

The menu for today:

🧑🏼‍⚖️ SEC's Decision Day

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is approaching a crucial deadline where it must decide whether to appeal a court's ruling that favored Grayscale Investments in their bid to convert their Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. While many experts don't expect the SEC to appeal the court's decision, there are alternative strategies the regulator might employ to delay approval of Grayscale's ETF. On October 13, the SEC had three options: appeal the court's decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, request the Appeals Court to revisit its ruling, or adhere to the court's previous order and review Grayscale's ETF application. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed doubts about an appeal, hinting at possible other obstacles in the way.

Bloomberg's ETF analysts believe that the chances of the SEC appealing the recent court decision are slim, but they acknowledge that unforeseen developments could still occur. Another Bloomberg analyst, James Seyffart, thinks it would be challenging for the SEC to deny the application on new grounds, though they might explore ways to keep delaying the process. A legal note from Ropes & Gray in September suggests that the GBTC application could be sent back to the SEC for further review, providing the regulator with an opportunity to reject it on different grounds. In this case, GBTC could potentially appeal the new denial to the D.C. Circuit. Another possible delay scenario would arise if the New York Stock Exchange needed to make a new filing to list GBTC, which could extend the SEC's decision-making process for up to eight months.

Currently, there are at least seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications awaiting approval from the SEC. Despite being submitted earlier in 2023, they have encountered various delays and resistance from the SEC, which means that most of these applications are unlikely to receive final approval until around March 2024 or later.

The spotlight is particularly on Grayscale's spot Bitcoin ETF conversion application because its approval could set a significant precedent for other applications. In fact, if the SEC greenlights Grayscale's conversion, it could become challenging for the regulator to find valid reasons to reject other similar applications.

According to Bloomberg analysts, the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved this year stands at 75%. This estimation was updated following Grayscale's recent court victory. Furthermore, the odds increase significantly to a 95% likelihood of approval by the end of 2024.

🦈 From Doubters to BTC Believers

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, it's fascinating to observe how various celebrities, financial tycoons, and politicians have transformed their perspectives on Bitcoin over the years. A recent YouTube video by Chris White delves into these intriguing shifts in opinions.

The video opens with a clip of a well-known individual expressing skepticism, claiming that Bitcoin is primarily a tool for illegal transactions. However, the narrative quickly takes a turn as another voice chimes in, emphasizing the potential of Bitcoin to enhance the quality of economic information. It becomes evident that not everyone sees Bitcoin in the same light.

The video then showcases the audacity of John McAfee, who famously pledged to eat his own member if Bitcoin didn't reach a million dollars by 2020. McAfee's belief in Bitcoin's potential was unshakable, and he was willing to make a bizarre, albeit highly publicized, commitment to prove it.

The video doesn't shy away from highlighting Bitcoin's critics, including prominent figures who have labeled it as "rat poison" or "garbage." These individuals see little value in the digital currency and express their disdain for it. Some even compare Bitcoin to baseball cards, comic books, or artwork, asserting that it lacks intrinsic worth.

The video also touches on the evolving perspective of Warren Buffett, a legendary investor who initially had reservations about Bitcoin. Buffett's investing philosophy centers on staying within one's "circle of competence," and technology wasn't in his wheelhouse. However, this didn't stop him from venturing into Apple, which is considered a technology company.

As the video progresses, it highlights Sam Bankman-Fried's conviction in Bitcoin. He views it as a hedge against traditional currencies and believes it's essential to include Bitcoin exposure in one's financial portfolio.

The debate surrounding Bitcoin and gold is another intriguing aspect of the video. Some individuals see Bitcoin as a digital store of value that could potentially outperform gold in the long run, while others remain steadfast in their belief in the traditional precious metal.

The video also discusses the growing interest in cryptocurrency from global investors. Cryptocurrency is seen as an international asset that transcends individual currencies, providing a potential hedge against currency devaluation.

Towards the end of the video, it becomes evident that even those who were once skeptics are starting to see the value and potential of Bitcoin. Some are warming up to it as a viable asset class, while others have already allocated a portion of their assets to it.

The video concludes with a reflection on the uncertain future of Bitcoin. While some believe it's indestructible due to its vast network and security measures, others question its long-term sustainability, especially in the face of government intervention.

In the ever-changing landscape of cryptocurrency, these shifts in perspective from celebrities, financial moguls, and politicians underscore the ongoing evolution and debate surrounding Bitcoin's role in the financial world. As the saying goes, "The only constant is change," and this certainly holds true for the world of digital currency.

💳 Rounded Top and Bottom

The rounded top and bottom chart pattern is a technical pattern that occurs when the price of an asset reaches a specific level, then retraces before eventually reclaiming that level. Whether this pattern is considered bullish or bearish depends on its position within the market cycle and other factors. If it appears after a downward trend and signals a potential reversal, it's often seen as a bullish signal. Conversely, if it occurs after an upward trend and suggests a potential trend reversal, it's viewed as a bearish signal. Traders and analysts use these patterns to help predict future price movements and make informed investment decisions.