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⚡Trump’s Election Chances and Bullish Q4🇺🇲

Croxroad

30 Oct 2024 — 4 min read

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✌️ Bitfinex

Analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex suggest that the convergence of Donald Trump's presidential election prospects and historically bullish market conditions could create a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, potentially pushing it to an all-time high next month. They believe the combination of election uncertainty, the rising "Trump trade" narrative, and favourable seasonal trends in Q4 could lead to significant price movements for Bitcoin, regardless of short-term volatility. As of October 28, Bitcoin was priced at $71,086, reflecting a notable 4.9% increase in just 24 hours, marking its highest value in nearly five months.

With Bitcoin now only 3.4% shy of its previous all-time high of $73,700 reached in March, analysts attribute its recent surge to the intensified narrative surrounding Trump's potential victory in the upcoming election. The correlation between Bitcoin's price movements and the likelihood of a Trump win has reportedly strengthened, with Trump currently leading by 30% on the decentralised betting platform Polymarket. Despite a narrow margin of 1.5% in national polls favouring Kamala Harris, the market appears to favour Bitcoin's upward trajectory as speculation mounts around the election's outcome.

The bullish sentiment is further underscored by record open interest in Bitcoin futures, which reached an all-time high of $41.7 billion on October 29. This surge indicates a significant appetite for leveraged exposure to Bitcoin, as investors position themselves for potential post-election gains. Additionally, there has been a steady increase in call options for Bitcoin set to expire in late December, reinforcing expectations of a price rally following the election. If the current trends persist, analysts predict that Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high, setting the stage for an exhilarating period in the cryptocurrency market.

💪 IC Markets’ 2024 Outlook

Since mid-September of last year, we have maintained a bullish stance on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), consistently believing in its upward trajectory. Our 2024 forecast concluded that while we are optimistic about Bitcoin's potential to reach between $100,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, this outlook remains contingent on Bitcoin staying above the critical threshold of $25,000. Should the price drop below this level, we would need to reassess our long-term bullish perspective. Our analysis indicates that Bitcoin is currently in the “Mid Bull” phase of its market cycle, suggesting that we are nearing the next major bull run.

Despite the challenges and volatility experienced from March through September, our commitment to guiding our premium members has kept them aligned with the prevailing trends. Utilising the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), we identified a pattern known as an “Ending Diagonal,” which has accurately tracked Bitcoin's price movements. As outlined in our previous update, the price briefly dipped below the October 4 low, which allowed us to predict a bottoming around $58,869. Following this, Bitcoin has shown a significant rally, confirming our alternate path and indicating that the anticipated orange W-c wave is underway.

Looking ahead, we remain confident in our wave count as long as Bitcoin stays above the October 10 low, with specific warning levels in place to alert us if the bullish sentiment wanes. Our forecast suggests that the orange W-c wave could potentially target between $74,800 and $78,400, with the possibility of reaching as high as $82,000. For those following our insights, these levels can serve as valuable stop-loss indicators. By adhering to our bullish view while maintaining an “insurance policy” for alternative scenarios, traders can navigate the uncertainties of the market effectively, remaining speculative while minimising potential losses.

🎁 Peer-to-Peer Lending and Borrowing

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending and borrowing through Bitcoin offer a transformative approach to personal finance by eliminating traditional intermediaries like banks. This decentralised model allows individuals to directly lend or borrow funds using smart contracts on the blockchain, facilitating quicker transactions with lower fees. Borrowers can access funds without extensive credit checks, while lenders can earn interest on their assets, making it an attractive option for both parties. By leveraging Bitcoin's security and transparency, P2P lending fosters a more inclusive financial ecosystem, enabling individuals to have greater control over their financial transactions.

🤣 Crox Road Memes

“Bitcoin enables decentralised peer-to-peer lending, cutting out the middlemen and offering better interest rates for both lenders and borrowers.”

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