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⚡️Insider Insights: What's Cooking for Bitcoin's Next Move?

Croxroad

14 Aug 2023 — 3 min read

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Right now, the Bitcoin price is surprisingly chill. Volatility indicators are super low, almost hitting record lows. Today, the Bitcoin price went up by about 2%, reaching $29,735 at its highest point of the day. But, honestly, this rise is just part of the same flat market trend, where the price has been hanging out between $28,670 and $31,000.

Bitcoin has hung out in this flat phase before, like back in 2016 and 2019. But now, in 2023, things are extra calm. The measure of how much the price actually moves around, called 'realized volatility,' is at its lowest point in years. The '1-year realized volatility' thing, which checks how much it jumped around in the past year, is as low as it's been since December 2016.

Bitcoin's movements being less jumpy right now matches up with not-so-busy BTC futures and options trading. And it's not just Bitcoin – even Ethereum is hitting really low trading levels, dropping below where it was in January 2023. Overall, Bitcoin's derivatives trading is around $19 billion, getting close to what it was in January 2023.

WHAT’S UP NEXT IN THE BITCOIN PRICE ROLLERCOASTER? 🎢

Looking at the techie stuff, Bitcoin's price is staying higher than some important long-term moving averages. This pattern is kind of like what happened in past Bitcoin cycles.

Even though Bitcoin is pretty calm and its price range is narrow right now, Conor Ryder, who's the big brain for research and data at Ethena Labs, thinks this won't stick around. Ryder spilled the beans to Cointelegraph, saying,

“Market depth for BTC is pushing yearly lows, and in periods of low liquidity, we tend to see more short-term volatility, both to the upside and the downside. As always, we have to step back and examine the bigger picture. Looking further ahead, the setup for a rally as we head into the next BTC is halving is certainly there. All the fundamentals are looking positive when examined on a longer timeframe, and coupled with the potential of a spot ETF approval, sentiment could definitely pick up. But until then, I expect there to be periods of boring market action alongside some illiquidity-induced short-term moves.”