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⚡Bitcoin's History Repeats🔁

Croxroad

19 Sep 2023 — 5 min read

☕️ GM Dear Plebs!

Here is Crox Road, your daily dose of orange pill that will turn you into a Bitcoin Maxi.

The menu for today:

🔑 Decoding Bitcoin's Journey

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) went up for about 240 days after reaching its lowest point in this recent market cycle. In the previous cycle, it only saw an increase for around 180 days from its lowest point.

This means that in the current cycle, Bitcoin's price recovery took longer and was more sustained compared to the previous cycle.

Right now, when you look at the daily price movement of whatever we're talking about (probably a cryptocurrency or stock), it's still showing a negative or bearish trend. However, there's an interesting thing happening with something called the RSI (Relative Strength Index) – it's showing signs of a positive or bullish shift, which could lead to a pretty decent rebound or bounce in the near future.

If the price manages to break through that line sloping downwards, it's a sign that things are looking up – we're talking about a bullish trend here. But if it can't break through and keeps going down, that's a sign that a correction is on the way.

Last week, Bitcoin's price had a bit of a bounce, which seemed to put an end to its month-long consolidation phase. But there's still a hurdle it needs to clear – this important line sloping downwards. Breaking through that line is what it needs to do to confirm that it's on a bullish upswing.

The drop in Bitcoin's price since its all-time high in November 2021 looks a bit like what happened after the 2017 high. In both cases, it took about a year to hit the lowest point. Also, the RSI, which helps traders figure out if it's a good time to buy or sell, dipped below 50 for a bit before going back up. When RSI is above 50 and rising, it's a sign the bulls are in charge; when it's below 50, it suggests the bears are gaining strength.

In the last cycle, Bitcoin went on a nice 340% ride upwards for about 180 days. Then, it went through a 70% correction that lasted for 270 days before starting a new cycle. It's interesting that during that time, it never dropped below the $6,500 support level.

Now, in the current cycle, things have been a bit slower. Bitcoin saw a 100% increase over 240 days, and it reached its 2023 high of $31,800 in July.

In this current Bitcoin cycle, we might see a correction for the rest of the year. The technical analysis is mixed. If Bitcoin breaks out of its resistance line, it could rise by 8%, reaching $29,200. If it fails, we might see an 8% drop to $24,300. The RSI is trending up, which suggests potential for a breakout.

🧧 South Korea's Delio Gearing Up to Sue Regulators Over Bitcoin Lending

In a nutshell, South Korean financial regulators accused this Bitcoin lender called Delio of doing some shady stuff like fraud and embezzlement. Back in July, they even seized Delio's assets. Now, Delio isn't taking it lying down – they're getting ready to sue these regulators. They're saying the regulators got the law all wrong, which led to this whole investigation and a big fine for the crypto lending company.

Delio, this Bitcoin lender, is saying the accusations of fraud and embezzlement by the Financial Service Committee (FSC) are basically nonsense. They argue that the regulator used the law unfairly, especially when there weren't clear rules for virtual assets. The report also mentioned that the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) suggested booting Delio's CEO on September 1, and Delio feels like this is a sign that they're being pressured to shut down instead of getting a chance to fix things. The FIU also slapped them with a three-month business suspension and a $1.34 million fine.

The big argument here centres on how the law sees lending companies that use virtual assets as collateral. Are they considered virtual asset businesses? And does locking up those assets count as 'storage' under the Special Financial Services Act?

Delio is basically saying the current laws are unclear about whether things like virtual asset deposits and management products should be seen as financial products. They're pointing out that there aren't any specific rules for these types of businesses in the existing laws and regulations.

The lawyer is saying that the FIU made a mistake by interpreting virtual asset deposits and management products as if they were regular financial investments and then punished them. Basically, they're saying the FIU got the law all mixed up in its interpretation.

💫 Morning Star

The morning star pattern is a notable technical analysis formation used in the stock market and candlestick chart analysis. This pattern is marked by three consecutive candlesticks, making it relatively complex compared to some other candlestick patterns. It begins with a long red candlestick, indicating a period of significant selling pressure and a bearish trend. Following this, the second candlestick is a short-bodied one, often resembling a doji or spinning top, which signifies market indecision and a potential equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The key component is the third candlestick, a long green candlestick that opens below the previous candle's close and then proceeds to close significantly higher. This final candlestick suggests a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, with buyers regaining control and initiating a potential bull market or a reversal in price direction to the upside. It's essential to remember that while the morning star pattern is a bullish reversal signal, traders typically use it in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and consider broader market conditions for more robust trading decisions.