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⚡Aurelien Ohayon Predicts Major Bitcoin Bull Run👟

Croxroad

02 Sep 2024 — 5 min read

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🍑 From $60K to New Peaks

As Bitcoin faces challenges maintaining its position around $60,000, market analyst Aurelien Ohayon suggests that the most potent phase of the current bull run may just be starting. Ohayon highlights a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s long-term price movements, where each cycle is marked by a steep ascent to a new all-time high, followed by a significant decline and consolidation before another surge.

Historical data supports this pattern, with Bitcoin experiencing notable peaks and troughs over previous cycles. After reaching a high of $1,163 in November 2013, Bitcoin fell to $152 in early 2015 before surging to $19,666 in December 2017, only to decline to $3,122 by December 2018. The pattern continued with Bitcoin hitting a peak of $69,000 in November 2021, followed by a drop to $15,479 in November 2022.

In the current cycle, Bitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high with a peak of over $73,000 in March 2024, ahead of the expected halving event in April. This early peak has been partly attributed to institutional investments, such as those facilitated by spot Bitcoin ETFs. Ohayon anticipates that this cycle has not yet reached its peak, projecting Bitcoin could potentially rise to $250,000 based on historical trends. Market veteran Peter Brandt, initially forecasting $73,000 as the cycle top, has since adjusted his projection to $92,000. Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands, which have tightened during consolidation phases and expanded at cycle tops, further suggest that significant gains may still lie ahead.

💥 Bitcoin's Institutional Shift

For years, Bitcoin enthusiasts anticipated that institutional investors would drive significant value increases, leading to explosive market growth and sustained price rises. The concept was straightforward: as companies and large financial entities invested in Bitcoin, the market would experience a transformative ‘supercycle.’ However, the reality has proven more complex. While institutions have indeed poured substantial capital into Bitcoin, the expected supercycle has not unfolded as predicted.

Institutional participation in Bitcoin has surged in recent years, with significant purchases from major companies and the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) earlier this year. MicroStrategy, which holds over 1% of the total Bitcoin supply, is a leading figure in this movement, along with other key players like Marathon Digital, Galaxy Digital, Tesla, and various Canadian and international firms. Together, these companies hold over 340,000 Bitcoin. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has further accelerated institutional accumulation, attracting billions in investments and resulting in the acquisition of over 91,000 Bitcoin within a few months. Combined, private companies and ETFs now control approximately 1.24 million Bitcoin, or about 6.29% of all circulating Bitcoin.

Recent Bitcoin price movements since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January provide insights into the potential impact of continued institutional investment. At the time, Bitcoin was trading around $46,000. Although the price initially dipped—a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario—the market quickly rebounded, with Bitcoin’s price surging by approximately 60% within two months. This increase correlates with institutional investors accumulating Bitcoin through ETFs, suggesting that ongoing institutional buying could sustain bullish momentum.

The accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional players has a profound impact, magnified by the money multiplier effect. When a large portion of an asset’s supply is removed from active circulation—like the nearly 75% of Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved in at least six months—the remaining circulating supply becomes more volatile, with each dollar invested having a magnified effect on the overall market cap. With roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s supply being liquid and actively traded, the money multiplier effect is particularly potent. Institutional ownership of 6.29% of Bitcoin could effectively influence around 25% of the circulating supply. If institutions began selling their holdings, the market could experience a significant downturn, likely prompting retail holders to sell as well. Conversely, if institutions continue to buy and hold long-term, Bitcoin’s price could surge dramatically. This scenario highlights the double-edged nature of institutional involvement in Bitcoin: while it can drive prices higher, it also introduces potential volatility and risk.

Institutional investment in Bitcoin offers both opportunities and challenges. It provides legitimacy and substantial capital that could push Bitcoin prices to new highs, especially if these institutions are committed long-term. However, the concentration of Bitcoin in the hands of a few institutions could lead to increased volatility and significant downside risk if these players decide to exit their positions.

🔁 Can Bitcoin Really Replace Gold?

Bitcoin's volatility is significantly influenced by media coverage, investor sentiment, regulatory changes, and market hype. These factors can cause rapid price fluctuations, making Bitcoin less stable than gold, which is traditionally seen as a safer asset. In contrast, stablecoins, which are pegged to fiat currencies or other stable assets like the U.S. dollar, have emerged as alternatives designed to offer more price stability than Bitcoin.

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