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⚡Bullish Targets vs. Correction Warnings⚠️

Croxroad

14 Mar 2024 — 4 min read

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☢️ Bitcoin's Pre-Halving Jitters

Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a meteoric rise, recently hitting a new all-time high of approximately $73,700 on March 13. However, amidst the euphoria, there are murmurs of a potential correction looming, especially as the halving approaches. Historical chart patterns suggest that Bitcoin could be gearing up for a pre-halving correction, mirroring previous cycles.

According to Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous analyst, there are parallels between the current market conditions and past pre-halving periods. In 2020, Bitcoin experienced a 20% pre-halving correction, while in 2016, there was a 38% retracement before the halving. Rekt Capital anticipates the possibility of a similar retrace this time, although it may be shallower due to previous pullbacks earlier in the year.

Despite these warnings, some analysts believe that Bitcoin's current trajectory deviates from historical norms. Ecoinometrics shared data indicating that Bitcoin is yet to match its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles. If Bitcoin were to follow similar patterns, its price could potentially reach anywhere between $100,000 to $300,000 per coin.

However, amidst the speculation, wealth management firm Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Bernstein expects Bitcoin to soar to around $150,000 following the halving by mid-2025. The firm cites elevated demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a key driver behind their optimistic outlook. Despite the optimism, Bernstein advises clients to consider investing in Bitcoin miners, viewing the current underperformance as a potential window of opportunity before the halving.

🚏 Bitcoin's Upsurge to Hit Brake

Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a relentless upward trajectory in recent weeks, consistently smashing through previous all-time highs. However, analysts are cautioning that the cryptocurrency might soon enter a cooling-off phase, with signs pointing to a potential pullback on the horizon.

According to digital asset analytics firm Swissblock, Bitcoin has surged nearly twofold from its late January price of $38,000 without encountering any significant corrections along the way. In a note released on Wednesday, Swissblock highlighted the absence of meaningful pullbacks and suggested that a period of consolidation could be imminent.

"Nothing rallies in a straight line. Not even BTC," remarked Swissblock analysts in a Telegram update. They pointed to a negative bearish divergence between Bitcoin's price, which continues to climb, and its relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential reversal in prices.

Swissblock's forecast, supported by analyst Henrik Zeberg's chart, suggests that Bitcoin could experience a pullback to the $58,000-$59,000 range in the near future, representing a roughly 20% decline from current levels. However, they emphasised that this would likely be a temporary setback before Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory to new highs.

Echoing similar sentiments, crypto investment services firm Matrixport highlighted the dwindling momentum in Bitcoin's rally, signalling a need for consolidation before another leg up. They noted that while the bull market still appears to have room to run, the declining RSI alongside high Bitcoin prices indicates a potential need for a pause in the rally.

Furthermore, the skyrocketing prices of meme coins could serve as a warning sign for a broader market pullback, as investors typically rotate profits from large-cap cryptocurrencies to riskier assets towards the end of an uptrend. For instance, the rapid surge in pepe coin's (PEPE) value last May preceded a 15% decline in Bitcoin's price in the following month.

In summary, while Bitcoin's ascent to new highs has been remarkable, analysts suggest that a period of consolidation or correction may be on the horizon. However, they remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency's long-term prospects, viewing any pullback as a temporary pause before the continuation of the uptrend.

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